CHANCE OF ISAAC AFFECTING OUR WEATHER WITH A TRACE OR MORE OF RAIN: 75%
CHANCE OF ISAAC AFFECTING OUR AREA WITH OVER .25″ OF RAIN: 40%
CHANCE OF ISAAC AFFECTING KC WITH WIDESPREAD 1″+ OF RAIN: 30%
ALL CHANCES ARE HIGHER OUT TOWARDS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS THROUGH CENTRAL MO
Isaac is in the process of weakening this afternoon as radar from the NWS in New Orleans clearly shows and as of this writing is now downgraded to a Tropical Storm. The center of the storm is starting to fill in now and that + the storm’s location over land means the slow demise of Isaac is at hand. Close to 600K people are without power as of this writing and that number may increase as the day/night moves along. There can’t be any repair work done until the winds drop off to 30 MPH or less and that won’t happen till midday tomorrow
While wind has been an issue for the storm, the main problems have been flooding rainfall, some areas have seen 10-15″ of rainfall, and the storm surge which continues to create problems in some areas, especially in Plaquemines and Jefferson Parish. There are some levees down there, not part of the new federal levee project, that are being overtopped creating even more flooding. There are also reports of people being in their attics avoiding the flood waters and some are saying, from a flooding and surge aspect that Isaac is worse than Katrina. This picture was recently taken in Braithwaite, LA which has reported devastating flooding with rescues needed.
I’m also hearing some people say they didn’t expect the storm to be this bad. Unfortunately this was well predicted. Many times the message was sent out by NWS/NHC to expect a worse than ‘typical” category 1 hurricane because of the storms size and large wind field. During the noon show today I showed that just looking at the rainfall echoes the storm was some 400 miles North to South and and about 350 from East to West. So this is a VERY large storm and the thing is, despite the fact that I’m slowly increasing our forecast probabilities at the top of the blog, these things have a total mind of there own. They wobble around, stall and sometimes move in ways that are unexpected. Storm chasers have been following the storm for days. Our friend Reed Timmer is down there as well…camped out in a parking garage watching the events unfold. He’s not alone
Those are wild hogs hanging around as well. The highest wind gust recorded was 113 MPH @ Belle Chasse Ferry Dock in Plaquemines Parish.
I bring all this up because at this point the models are keeping the KC area on the ragged edge of getting little to nothing or getting a substantial show of rainfall. One thing hasn’t changed and that the odds favor the MO side (especially central and eastern) more so than the KS side for picking up significant rainfall.
Here is the latest rainfall forecast.
Basically from St Joe to Sedalia there is a gradient from about .25″ to almost 3″. So obviously you can see that a 50-100 mile wobble or change of direction will mean the world when it comes to our rainfall amounts here int eh KC area. it’s a forecast that won’t really get nailed down till later tomorrow night into Friday AM. We’re confident that clouds will be increasing regardless and the 95°+ of the last few days will be cooled off to the 80s for a couple of days. I’m also confident that the heavier rains will be on the MO side, especially SE/E of the KC area.
That’s what we know, but there is still a lot we don’t know. Here is the latest satellite picture…I’m already concerned about how the storm looks on the western side.
Looking at radar, you can see the storm seems a little “squished” on the western side as well compared to the eastern side. Something to watch for the next few days.
We’ll keep hoping that this could wobble more towards the west…that would be a better scenario for us here in the KC area.
Joe